It appears that a combination of old vaccine development technology and technical production delays have caused initial estimates of H1N1 vaccine availability to be grossly in error. Far fewer doses are now available and it appears that it may be a month or more before sufficient doses are available for those who wish to receive vaccine. Clearly, our medical and pharmacologic science remains no match for the insidious genetic variations that nature and viruses can achieve. So it appears that basic public health measures will continue to be the best bet for all who have concerns about prevention of spread of the H1N1 virus. . . ben kazie md
The federal government originally promised 120 million doses of swine flu vaccine by now. Only 13 million have come through. As nervous Americans clamor for the vaccine, production is running several weeks behind schedule, and health officials blame the pressure on pharmaceutical companies to crank it out along with the ordinary flu vaccine, and a slow and antiquated process that relies on millions of chicken eggs.
There have been other bottlenecks, too: Factories that put the precious liquid into syringes have become backed up. And the government itself ran into a delay in developing the tests required to assess each batch before it is cleared for use. What effect the delays will have on the course of the outbreak is unclear, in part because scientists cannot say with any certainty just how dangerous the virus is, how easily it spreads, or whether it will mutate into a more lethal form.
Since April, swine flu has killed more than 800 people in the U.S., including 86 children, 39 of them in the past month and a half, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than half of all hospitalizations since the beginning of September were people 24 and under.
In the meantime, many states have had to postpone mass vaccinations. Clinics around the country that managed to obtain doses of the vaccine have been swamped. And doctors are getting bombarded with calls from worried and angry parents.
Federal officials counsel patience, saying that eventually there should be enough of both vaccines for everyone who wants them.
The delays have led to renewed demands for a quicker, more reliable way of producing vaccines than the chicken-egg method, which is 50-year-old technology and involves injecting the virus into eggs and allowing it to feed on the nutrients in the egg white.
Federal officials initially projected that as many as 120 million doses of the vaccine would be ready to dispense by mid-October. They later reduced their estimate to 45 million. As of Tuesday, only 12.8 million were available. (Health officials say a single dose will protect adults, while children under 10 will need two doses.)
In a sign of how rapidly the virus is spreading, education officials said 198 schools in 15 states were closed Wednesday because of swine flu, with more than 65,000 students affected. That was up from 88 school closings the day before.
Production of swine flu vaccine is way behind – http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hDG1Y2pO9MZlJLNboKJOSSY9xWTwD9BFOG0O4
CDC says flu predictions are often futile – http://www.latimes.com/news/health/la-sci-swine-flu22-2009oct22,0,3172233.story
Swine flu vaccine goal 50 million doses next month – http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ghkYM9EjNWVIMr9ufhUmqQUlcVTQD9BFMQ6O2
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